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A World in Disruption

Look Forward

13 Jan 2023
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The world has reached a unique moment. In my 40-plus years in business, I’ve never seen a time quite like the one we’re living through now.

This is a period marked by uncertainty. Households, the private sector and governments around the globe face an energy security crisis and climate change, food shortages, high inflation, ongoing supply chain challenges, volatility in financial markets and a host of geopolitical risks.

In this first issue of Look Forward, our economists, analysts, researchers and data experts survey the current state of affairs and connect the dots to explain what it all means in an era of instability. The purpose of Look Forward is to help decision-makers in asset managers, asset owners, companies, multilateral institutions, nonprofit organizations and governments look beyond the near term and explore the trends that will shape our future.

Readers will benefit from the smart analysis of our cross-divisional Research Council at S&P Global, which produced this journal. The Council has identified six interconnected themes with the greatest potential for large-scale disruption well into the future.

The Council’s critical work, as you will read, is focused on energy security, climate and sustainability, technology and digital disruptions, supply chains, capital markets and geopolitical shocks. We have unique datasets and insights in all these areas, and we see the Research Council as a way to make sure that our insights deliver maximum impact to our customers and the markets.

In this age of turbulence and change, the following articles are designed to help navigate the path ahead.


Douglas L. Peterson
President and CEO
S&P Global



The world has reached a unique moment.
In my 40-plus years in business, I’ve never seen a time quite like the one we’re living through now.

This is a period marked by uncertainty. Households, the private sector and governments around the globe face an energy security crisis and climate change, food shortages, high inflation, ongoing supply chain challenges, volatility in financial markets and a host of geopolitical risks.

In this first issue of Look Forward, our economists, analysts, researchers and data experts survey the current state of affairs and connect the dots to explain what it all means in an era of instability. The purpose of Look Forward is to help decision-makers in asset managers, asset owners, companies, multilateral institutions, nonprofit organizations and governments look beyond the near term and explore the trends that will shape our future.

Readers will benefit from the smart analysis of our cross-divisional Research Council at S&P Global, which produced this journal. The Council has identified six interconnected themes with the greatest potential for large-scale disruption well into the future.

The Council’s critical work, as you will read, is focused on energy security, climate and sustainability, technology and digital disruptions, supply chains, capital markets and geopolitical shocks. We have unique datasets and insights in all these areas, and we see the Research Council as a way to make sure that our insights deliver maximum impact to our customers and the markets.

In this age of turbulence and change, the following articles are designed to help navigate the path ahead.


Douglas L. Peterson
President and CEO
S&P Global












  • Introduction: A World In Disruption








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  • A Pragmatic World (Re)order

    To meet the crosscutting challenges defining the years ahead, a new pragmatism will emerge.






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  • The End of Lower for Longer: A Post-COVID Silver Lining?

    Structural changes to the global economy suggest higher prices and rates ahead.






    Read the Report



  • Energy Transition: Gaps in the Pathways

    Despite current economic and geopolitical crises, the energy transition is accelerating — but not fast enough to meet Paris Agreement climate goals.






    Read the Report



  • The World Isn’t in a Commodity Supercycle, But It Should Be

    A brutal series of shocks has left markets ill-prepared for the challenges of the future.






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  • Women CEOs Model a Diverse Future

    Women’s leadership styles position them well to guide organizations through the profound transformations ahead.







    Read the Report



  • Global Debt Leverage: Is a Great Reset Coming?

    Rising rates and slowing economies mean the world’s high leverage poses a crisis risk.






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  • Crunch Time: Can Adaptation Finance Protect Against the Worst Impacts From Physical Climate Risks?

    Investments in adaptation must close the gap with mitigation financing to avoid the worst outcomes.






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  • The EV Revolution – Moving From Oil Age to Battery Age?

    Few stakeholders will be shielded from the transformation of the automotive ecosystem.






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  • Risk Will Define Supply Chains for Years To Come

    Although the greatest disruption to containerized shipping supply chains since the dawn of the container era has begun to ease, risks remain high.






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  • Toward A Tokenized Future

    Digitization will improve efficiency and open new markets — but the revolution won’t happen overnight.







    Read the Report



 



Contributors


Atul Arya
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Chief Energy Strategist,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Global Head of Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Martina Cheung
Sponsor, S&P Global Research Council
President,
S&P Global Ratings
Marion Amiot
Head of Climate Economics,
S&P Global Ratings
Tim Armstrong
SVP and Partner, Planning Solutions, Automotive Insights,
S&P Global Mobility
Alexandre Birry
Chief Analytical Officer, Financial Institutions,
S&P Global Ratings
Daniela Brandazza
Senior Director,
S&P Global Ratings
Steven Bullock
Managing Director and Global Head of ESG Innovation and Solutions,
S&P Global Sustainable1
Rose Marie Burke
Senior Writer,
S&P Global Ratings
Terry Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow, Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings
Clayton Davis
Senior Data Scientist, Analytical Innovation,
S&P Global Ratings
Tom De Vleesschauwer
Senior Director,
S&P Global Mobility
Gaurang Dholakia
Manager, Central Data,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Dave Ernsberger
Head of Market Reporting & Trading Solutions,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist,
S&P Global Ratings
Lindsey Hall
Head of ESG Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Sustainable1
Charles Jansen
Senior Director, DeFi,
S&P Global Ratings
Roman Kramarchuk
Head of Future Energy Analytics,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of Essential Tech Center of Excellence & Innovation
S&P Global
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer, Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Lai Ly
Global Head of ESG Research,
S&P Global Ratings
James McMahon
CEO, The Climate Service,
an S&P Global company
Jeff Meyer
Research & Analysis Director,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Turloch Mooney
Head of Port Performance, Maritime, Trade and Supply Chain,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Dr. Gabriel Morin
Program Director and Associate Professor of Leadership Development, Master 2 International Human Resources Management, Paris,
Université Paris Panthéon-Assas
Chuck Mounts
Chief DeFi Officer,
S&P Global Ratings
Dr. Paul Munday
Global Climate Adaptation and Resilience Specialist,
S&P Global Ratings
Dr. Lindsay Newman
Executive Director,
Head of Geopolitical Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Karl Nietvelt
Chief Analytical Officer, Global Infrastructure,
S&P Global Ratings
Simon Redmond
Senior Director, Sector Lead, Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Nicole Serino
Associate Director, Credit Markets and Insight,
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
Chief Analytical Officer, Sovereign and IPF Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Ashutosh Singh
Head of Energy Transition,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Peter Tirschwell
Vice President, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, Chairman of TPM,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Rick Vidal
Director of Energy,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Ruth Yang
Global Head of Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Ratings

Contributors


Atul Arya
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Chief Energy Strategist,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Co-chair, S&P Global Research Council
Global Head of Research & Development,
S&P Global Ratings
Martina Cheung
Sponsor, S&P Global Research Council
President,
S&P Global Ratings
Marion Amiot
Head of Climate Economics,
S&P Global Ratings
Tim Armstrong
SVP and Partner, Planning Solutions, Automotive Insights,
S&P Global Mobility
Alexandre Birry
Chief Analytical Officer, Financial Institutions,
S&P Global Ratings
Daniela Brandazza
Senior Director,
S&P Global Ratings
Steven Bullock
Managing Director and Global Head of ESG Innovation and Solutions,
S&P Global Sustainable1
Rose Marie Burke
Senior Writer,
S&P Global Ratings
Terry Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow, Credit Research & Insights,
S&P Global Ratings
Clayton Davis
Senior Data Scientist, Analytical Innovation,
S&P Global Ratings
Tom De Vleesschauwer
Senior Director,
S&P Global Mobility
Gaurang Dholakia
Manager, Central Data,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Dave Ernsberger
Head of Market Reporting & Trading Solutions,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist,
S&P Global Ratings
Lindsey Hall
Head of ESG Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Sustainable1
Charles Jansen
Senior Director, DeFi,
S&P Global Ratings
Roman Kramarchuk
Head of Future Energy Analytics,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of Essential Tech Center of Excellence & Innovation
S&P Global
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer, Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Lai Ly
Global Head of ESG Research,
S&P Global Ratings
James McMahon
CEO, The Climate Service,
an S&P Global company
Jeff Meyer
Research & Analysis Director,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Turloch Mooney
Head of Port Performance, Maritime, Trade and Supply Chain,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Dr. Gabriel Morin
Program Director and Associate Professor of Leadership Development, Master 2 International Human Resources Management, Paris,
Université Paris Panthéon-Assas
Chuck Mounts
Chief DeFi Officer,
S&P Global Ratings
Dr. Paul Munday
Global Climate Adaptation and Resilience Specialist,
S&P Global Ratings
Dr. Lindsay Newman
Executive Director,
Head of Geopolitical Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Karl Nietvelt
Chief Analytical Officer, Global Infrastructure,
S&P Global Ratings
Simon Redmond
Senior Director, Sector Lead, Corporate Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Nicole Serino
Associate Director, Credit Markets and Insight,
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
Chief Analytical Officer, Sovereign and IPF Ratings,
S&P Global Ratings
Ashutosh Singh
Head of Energy Transition,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Peter Tirschwell
Vice President, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, Chairman of TPM,
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Rick Vidal
Director of Energy,
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Ruth Yang
Global Head of Thought Leadership,
S&P Global Ratings